Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #4
New Haven Semi-State Rank #2
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 9th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 6.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 47.5%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/19 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/16 9/23 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 189 152 210 676 197 625 345 319 309 350 250
Team Adjusted Rating 152 210 189 197 189 221 196 216 259 173
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
3  Cole Powers 11 15:34 15:40 15:27 15:40
13  Connor Goetz 12 15:45 15:41 15:27 15:50 15:40 15:47 15:52 15:53 15:51
81  Draven Thompson 11 16:28 16:18 17:01 16:43 16:40 16:45 16:30 16:48 16:21
118  Cory Waldron 11 16:41 16:11 16:45 16:30 17:39 17:09 16:34
139  Weston Miser 11 16:45 17:03 16:38 16:46 17:06 16:36 16:39 16:59 16:41
291  Chase Miguel 11 17:08 16:50 17:10 17:22 17:08 17:07 17:15 17:05
407  Jack Just 12 17:24 17:14 17:15 17:37 17:27
409  Andrew Howard 12 17:24 17:27 17:02 17:42 17:10 17:23 17:42
442  Hunter Wallace 11 17:27 17:30 17:39 17:57 17:32 17:17 17:16 17:30 17:28
486  Will Terry 12 17:31 17:48 17:12 17:36
495  Hayden Mullett 10 17:33 17:20 17:44 17:42 17:26 17:33
631  Zach Ingermann 12 17:47 17:23 17:35 17:54 18:17
797  Samuel Burchett 12 18:01 17:53 18:13 18:08 17:41 18:08
829  Cooper Green 11 18:03 17:47 18:06 18:02 17:22 19:40
908  Tim Derose 10 18:09 17:49 18:28 18:11 18:14 18:04
1,055  Harrison Dinius 11 18:19 18:00 18:14 18:29 18:36
1,177  Wyatt Schroeder 10 18:28 18:09 17:51 18:40 18:35 18:49
1,178  Graydon Sylvester 9 18:28 18:35 18:20 18:34 18:41 18:13
1,360  Seth Ernest 12 18:42 18:31 19:07 18:16 18:49 18:50
1,462  Henry Wellman 10 18:49 18:47 18:54 18:49
1,494  Ian Gongwer 9 18:51 18:43 18:54 18:35 19:18
1,541  Saul Guzman 11 18:54 18:20 18:40 18:28 19:27 19:41
Logan Meyer 11 19:06 18:57 19:09 19:11 19:19 18:58




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 11.1 316 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.6 6.3 7.0 9.4 10.3 8.1 8.4 9.1 7.2 6.4 5.2 5.3 3.8 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.3
Semi-State 100% 2.6 108 6.9 53.3 23.9 9.7 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.2
Regionals 100% 2.2 71 6.5 73.9 14.1 4.2 0.9 0.5 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.3 45 80.2 14.3 4.6 0.9 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Connor Goetz 100% 11.3 0.9 1.9 4.4 4.2 5.4 6.4 5.7 4.9 5.8 4.8 4.6 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.1 100.0%
Draven Thompson 100% 75.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 62.1%
Cory Waldron 100% 105.2 21.9%
Weston Miser 100% 114.2 11.9%
Chase Miguel 100% 156.2 0.2%
Jack Just 100% 176.2 0.0%
Andrew Howard 100% 176.3 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Connor Goetz 100% 2.6 16.8 22.4 18.4 17.3 12.8 7.5 3.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Draven Thompson 100% 14.9 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.2 5.6 7.5 6.9 7.0 6.3 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.2 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.2 99.9%
Cory Waldron 100% 28.9 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.7 2.4 98.7%
Weston Miser 100% 34.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.8 96.6%
Chase Miguel 100% 68.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 48.2%
Jack Just 100% 89.8 9.5%
Andrew Howard 100% 89.9 9.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Connor Goetz 100% 1.8 25.7 30.4 25.0 15.6 2.9 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Draven Thompson 100% 7.7 0.2 0.9 8.5 18.2 13.0 12.8 8.9 7.8 7.6 5.4 4.0 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Cory Waldron 100% 13.6 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.5 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.9 8.1 8.0 6.2 8.0 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.3 100.0%
Weston Miser 100% 16.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.2 3.1 4.0 5.0 6.1 6.7 6.0 6.7 7.6 6.9 6.4 5.5 5.4 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 100.0%
Chase Miguel 100% 30.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.1 3.2 4.3 100.0%
Jack Just 100% 44.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 97.2%
Andrew Howard 100% 45.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 96.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Connor Goetz 1.0 68.2 28.2 3.5 0.1 0.1
Draven Thompson 4.2 1.0 9.7 34.8 20.4 11.8 8.6 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3
Cory Waldron 7.7 0.5 4.0 11.7 12.8 12.3 12.5 11.6 9.8 6.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Weston Miser 9.2 0.1 1.3 5.2 8.5 10.9 10.7 11.0 10.9 8.3 6.5 8.0 5.8 4.2 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Chase Miguel 18.7 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.0 5.0 4.4 5.7 7.3 6.7 7.7 8.0 7.3 5.9 6.3 4.6 3.9 3.2
Jack Just 28.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.7 5.6 5.0 4.7
Andrew Howard 28.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.3 2.5 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.0 4.7